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Xbox 360 to lead October NPD sales, Vita still struggling - analysts

"Vita highly unlikely to gain traction, even if Sony decides to cut price later this year", says Pachter

Games industry analysts have weighed in with US sales predictions for the month of October, ahead of the NPD Group's release of official market data this Thursday.

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Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter and fellow analyst firm EEDAR expect Xbox 360 sales to top those of PS3 and Wii for the 22nd consecutive month.

They also predict further underwhelming monthly Vita sales of between 40,500 and 45,000 units in October.

Pachter said in a research note distributed this afternoon: "Combined PSP and PS Vita unit sales were down 23% in the PS Vita's eighth month [September]. In our view, the PS Vita is highly unlikely to gain traction, even if Sony decides to cut price later this year."

Last week Sony lowered its annual sales forecast for Vita and PSP from a combined total of 12 million units to ten million. Those predictions are down from 16 million units forecast in May.

On the software front, Pachter expects October sales to be led by Skylanders Giants, Medal of Honor: Warfighter and Pokémon Black & White 2.

Wedbush / EEDAR October hardware sales estimates (change year-on-year):

  • 360 - 305,000 (-22%) / 315,000 (-20%)
  • PS3 - 226,000 (-9%) / 225,000 (-10%)
  • 3DS - 220,000 (-12%) / 250,000 (0%)
  • DS - 105,000 (-42%) / 115,000 (-36%)
  • Wii - 85,000 (-66%) / 135,000 (-46%)
  • Vita - 40,500 (n/a) / 45,000 (n/a)
  • PSP - 7,500 (-89%) / 6,000 (-92%)
  • PS2 - 1,000 (-94%) / (n/a)
  • Total - 990,000 (-30%) / 1,091,000 (-22%)

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